When Eric Janzen sent me a note announcing his new book, “The Postcatastrophe Economy”, I was intrigued. I know Eric not only as a VC and startup company CEO, but also as one of the leading economic and market forecasters through his site iTulip. Eric had accurately predicted the market crash of 2008 and as a result has received widespread attention and acclaim. .
To me the most important thing as a venture-backed company executive was that Eric is someone to pay close attention to. His new book is a must-read for any business manager navigating the tricky confluence of risk management and business forecasting.
I picked out a few key points from the book that I think are particularly important to us as we go into business planning for 2011. Here they are:
- The FIRE – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate –industries continue to dominate and shape the economy with potentially dire consequences.
- Oil will again become a key issue.
- Short term stock market performance continues to mask the negative effects of the massive government debt overhang.
- One (good) way out is for the economy to build around the TECI – Transportation, Energy, Communication and Infrastructure.
Eric delivers a crisp and level headed analysis of where the economy is at. But what I like best is how Eric shows how technology and innovation can play a key role in reshaping the economy for a more lasting recovery.
